A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."